Humility Is Back in Style at the Bank of Canada

The Bank of Canada is wading back into economic forecasting — but this time with humility. Governor Tiff Macklem said the central bank will have to be “humble” in its projections, given the unpredictable mix of global and domestic risks.

Earlier this year, the Bank paused its forecasts, citing “heightened uncertainty” around trade and global pressures. Now, it’s bringing them back — cautiously.

What’s New — and What’s Worrying

Risk over precision: The Bank will focus more on risk scenarios than confident predictions — no crystal ball here.

Soft growth ahead: Canada’s economy is expected to rebound slightly, but not enough to close the output gap.

Markets betting on a cut: Traders see a 64% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut this month, bringing the policy rate to around 2.25%.

Global fragility: Macklem warns that trade tensions and external shocks could still derail progress.

What It Means

This is a smart reset. The Bank’s humility shows it’s learning from past overconfidence — but too much caution has its risks. If it waits too long to act when the economy weakens, markets could be blindsided.

Bottom line: Canada’s central bank is ditching bravado for realism. That’s good — but humility only helps if it’s paired with decisive action when the next shock hits.